Canada, through the looking glass

'We're through the looking glass now, people," says Kevin Costner in JFK, Oliver Stone's conspiracy film. It was his way of saying that he was entering uncharted waters, another world.

Our cold, grey kingdom isn't Fantasyland, though politically speaking, Canada looks that way today. On May 2, Canadians threw up the cards in resignation, frustration and expectation. Who knows where they'll land?

In Quebec, Vivian Barbot, the vice-president of the Bloc Québécois, contemplated life among the ruins. She observed that "this complete turnaround in public opinion without any dialogue is surprising and it's something out of science fiction."

Science fiction. After all, it isn't as if Quebecers thought much about the people or the policies of the New Democratic Party, which explains why half the members of the McGill University NDP Club are heading to Parliament.

It's very charming, really, for these kids to get a little experience in politics before they go into the world to grow beans, run a co-op, or teach Hegel. One of them wants to continue studying at McGill parttime. That's nice.

For New Democrats, though, the biggest fiction is that what they say matters. In a majority Parliament, it doesn't. Layton had more influence before the election. The minority Conservatives had to listen to him, and to a degree, they did. No longer.

That's life with a majority. The official Opposition can matter sometimes in our system, such as when Joe Clark's Conservatives slowed Pierre Trudeau's constitutional reform in 1981 and forced a compromise. On the whole, though, a majority is carte blanche.

So you'll hear a lot of clucking and chest-beating from the NDP in question period. On a good day they may draw blood. But they'll never stop legislation and they'll rarely change it.

That Parliament matters (Canadians blithely ignored a government found in contempt, unprecedented as it was) is one of the misapprehensions and illusions of our new political reality. Here are some of the new myths to consider:

That the country is polarized. Not really. We remain a radically moderate, progressive people. Canadians are not dividing into camps; there are not red and blue provinces. There are differences of opinion, yes, but they are more practical than ideological. Watch for the two big parties to hug the centre -edging slightly left and right -to woo dispossessed Liberals.

That there will be a merger between the Liberals and the New Democrats. Not imminently. They will fight another election in 2015, divide the left-of-centre again, and help the Conservatives to another mandate. Then, they'll talk.

That Justin Trudeau will become the next leader of the Liberal party. It's unlikely that he wants the job, which is now a poisoned chalice, or even thinks himself ready. But he may be a contender in 10 years if he stays on. Having twice won a tough riding in Montreal, Trudeau has earned his place in Parliament, and deserves credit for his energy and imagination.

That separatism is dead in Quebec. It isn't, as we will see when the Parti Québécois returns to power in two years, exploiting the weakness of a federal government with few representatives in the province.

That you need Quebec to win a majority. Well, you don't, which is why the Conservatives gave up on Quebec in 2008. This situation will help the secessionists. See above.

That Canadians are more engaged in politics. They aren't. The much-heralded higher turnout at the advance polls meant little. On Election Day, turnout rose from 59 per cent to 61 per cent.

That the opinion polls are reliable. Most did not predict the Conservative majority, though they did pick up early the rising NDP in Quebec.

That the Conservatives will not govern as conservatives. They will, but carefully, and not always in visible ways. Expect a transfer of tax points to the provinces, weakening the federal spending power. Expect some privatization, such as the sale of branches of the CBC, and encouraging more private health care. Expect more conservative judges on the Supreme Court.

That our politics is civil. It isn't, if it ever was. The Conservatives ran a dark, fearful campaign, stained by expensive advertising to tarnish Michael Ignatieff. They succeeded, and will do so again against someone else. So much for our conceit of a kinder, gentler society.

Still, the House of Commons will miss the independent-minded Keith Martin, a doctor devoted to aid innovation in Africa who worked in hospital emergency rooms in interior British Columbia on national holidays. It will miss the passion of Glen Pearson, the intellect of Ken Dryden and the warmth of Martha Hall Findlay. It will miss the professionalism of Stockwell Day and the courage of Chuck Strahl.

Will Parliament be a less rancorous place with 108 new members and a Conservative majority? If you believe that you, too, are on the other side of the looking glass.

Andrew Cohen is a professor of journalism and international affairs at Carleton University. E-mail: