Construction Starts to Decline in 2020, per Dodge Outlook

Dodge Data & Analytics released its 2020 Dodge Construction Outlook, predicting total U.S. construction starts will slip to $776 billion in 2020, a decline of 4 percent from the 2019 estimated level of activity. The 2020 Dodge Construction Outlook was presented at the 81st annual Outlook Executive Conference held by Dodge Data & Analytics at the Renaissance Chicago Downtown Hotel in Chicago.

“The recovery in construction starts that began during 2010 in the aftermath of the Great Recession is coming to an end,” says Richard Branch, chief economist for Dodge Data & Analytics. “Easing economic growth driven by mounting trade tensions and lack of skilled labor will lead to a broad based, but orderly pullback in construction starts in 2020. After increasing 3 percent in 2018 construction starts dipped an estimated 1 percent in 2019 and will fall 4 percent in 2020.”

Branch continues, “Next year, however, will not be a repeat of what the construction industry endured during the Great Recession. Economic growth is slowing but is not anticipated to contract next year. Construction starts, therefore, will decline but the level of activity will remain close to recent highs. By major construction sector, the dollar value of starts for residential buildings will be down 6 percent, while starts for both nonresidential buildings and nonbuilding construction will drop 3 percent.”

According to Dodge, the pattern of construction starts for more specific segments is as follows:

The dollar value of commercial building starts will retreat 6 percent in 2020. The steepest declines will occur in commercial warehouses and hotels, while the decline in office construction will be cushioned by high value data center construction. Retail activity will also fall in 2020, a continuation of a trend brought about by systemic changes in the industry.

In 2020, institutional construction starts will essentially remain even with the 2019 level as the influence of public dollars adds stability to the outlook. Education building and health facility starts should continue to see modest growth next year, offset by declines in recreation and transportation buildings.

Multifamily construction was an early leader in the recovery, stringing together eight years of growth since 2009. However, multifamily vacancy rates have moved sideways over the past year, suggesting that slower economic growth will weigh on the market in 2020. Multifamily starts are slated to drop 13 percent in dollars and 15 percent in units to $410,000 (Dodge basis).

The dollar value of single-family housing starts will be down 3 percent in 2020 and the number of units will also lose 5 percent to $765,000 (Dodge basis). Affordability issues and the tight supply of entry level homes have kept demand for homes muted and buyers on the sidelines.