A Decline in September’s DMI Doesn’t Tell Whole Picture

Despite a decline in September’s Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting at Dodge Construction Network (DCN), says the index remains at “robust levels.” The DMI fell by 4.2% in September to 208.6 from a revised August reading of 217.7. Over the month, commercial planning dropped 7.8%, while institutional planning jumped 5.2%.

The DMI is a monthly measure of the value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year.

“A surge in data center activity drove much of the recent rapid growth in the DMI, so as planning for that sector moderated over the month, overall commercial planning fell back,” says Martin. “By mid-2025, the Fed’s rate cuts should spur planning projects to reach groundbreaking more quickly, leading to stronger nonresidential activity as 2025 progresses.”

According to DCN data, warehouse, office and store planning activity all slowed in September, while hotels expanded. Data centers continued to dominate large project activity. The rate at which planning projects entered the queue continued to moderate from the above-average levels of growth in recent months. On the institutional side, education, healthcare and recreational projects were the primary drivers in September.

In September, the DMI was 21% higher than this time last year. The commercial segment was up 31%, while the institutional segment was up 4%.

Throughout September, 28 projects valued at $100 million or more entered planning. The largest commercial projects included the $390 million Project Nova Data Center in Eagan, Minnesota and Phase 1 and 2 of the SNA Data Center in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. The largest institutional projects to enter planning were the $300 million Kairos Power research and development lab facility and the $215 million phase 2 of the Kentucky Exposition Center redevelopment in Louisville, Kentucky.