DODGE MOMENTUM INDEX TICKS DOWN 2.3% IN NOVEMBER

The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) decreased by 2.3% in November to 191.5 from a revised October reading of 196.0. Commercial planning fell by 4.6% in November, while institutional planning improved by 2.5%.  

The Dodge Construction Network (DNC) issues the DMI monthly. It measures the value of nonresidential building projects in planning and has been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. 

“Throughout 2024, we’ve seen robust growth in nonresidential planning activity, but labor shortages and high construction costs have prevented those projects from moving through the planning process normally,” says Sarah Martin, DCN’s associate director of forecasting. “The current backlog may be constraining demand for commercial planning in the short term. Uncertainty over new tariff and immigration policies under President-elect Trump’s administration may also generate some pause with developers. However, it’s too early to tell if that’s the primary factor here. Overall, easing monetary policy will help alleviate the backlog of projects in the planning queue throughout 2025 and spur more demand for projects in the coming months.” 

In the commercial sector, a slowdown in data center, office, warehouse and retail planning impacted November’s DMI score. Strong growth in education project planning led to an increase in the institutional sector. The institutional portion of the DMI has grown in five of the past six months. 

In November, the DMI was 12% higher than year-ago levels. The commercial segment was up 13% from November 2023, while the institutional sector was up 8% over the same period. 

Throughout November, 17 projects valued at $100 million or more entered planning. The largest commercial projects included the $350 million Bally’s Hotel Tower and Casino in Las Vegas and the $312 million Accokeek Data Center in Stafford, Virginia. The largest institutional projects to enter planning were the $465 million student dormitory at UC Berkeley, California and the $323 million Intensive Treatment Tower at Texas Health Presbyterian in Plano, Texas.